The 2016 South China Sea Arbitration and the Limits of International Law

Since the ruling was released on July 12, 2016, the Chinese government has repeatedly iterated its policy of “non-acceptance and non-recognition.” On July 12, 2025, the ninth anniversary of the ruling, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson categorically referred to the award as “nothing but a piece of waste paper that is illegal, null and void, and non-binding.”

Contrary to many expectations, the 2016 Arbitral Award did not bring the Philippines the conclusive victory in its territorial dispute with China in the South China Sea. Instead, it dragged the Philippines, and on many occasions, the United States too, into a long and fraught war of diplomatic attrition and legal posturing. 

The contested legacy of the 2016 Arbitral Award – marked by the protracted stalemate between China and the Philippines – calls for a more honest reckoning of the limits of international legal mechanisms in the face of entrenched power politics. Why has the authority of international law failed to bring more stability to the South China Sea, and what other options do we have in pursuit of a peaceful South China Sea? 

Attribution: The Diplomat, July 22, 2025

Author: Mengzhen Liu, Assistant Research Fellow at Huayang Center for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance. 

Read the full article at: https://thediplomat.com/2025/07/the-2016-south-china-sea-arbitration-and-the-limits-of-international-law/